Grok says: Key Points
- It seems likely that Sergey Karaganov views the Russia-Ukraine war as a prolonged conflict favoring Russia due to its strategic endurance and nuclear leverage.
- Research suggests he predicts escalation, possibly including nuclear posturing, to force Western retreat and secure Russian dominance.
- The evidence leans toward his belief that waning US support under Trump in 2025 could tip the scales, potentially by late 2025 or 2026.
- An unexpected detail is his emphasis on Russia’s alliance with China as a game-changer, sustaining Moscow’s war effort against Western pressure.
Direct Answer
Sergey Karaganov, a prominent Russian political scientist and foreign policy expert, likely sees the Russia-Ukraine war as of March 29, 2025, heading toward a prolonged conflict where Russia holds the advantage through attrition, military escalation, and nuclear deterrence. Based on his past writings, such as his 2023 article "A Difficult but Necessary Decision" in Russia in Global Affairs, he would argue that Russia will intensify its efforts—possibly with nuclear threats or limited tactical use—to break Western resolve, especially given Trump’s pause in US aid since January 2025. He might predict that Ukraine’s manpower shortages and reliance on faltering Western support could lead to a decisive Russian edge by late 2025 or 2026, assuming Europe can’t fully compensate for US withdrawal. Karaganov would likely view Russia’s current control of about one-fifth of Ukraine and recent Donetsk gains as steps toward victory, with Putin’s rejection of ceasefire talks signaling an aim for broader subjugation rather than just retaining occupied territories.
Detailed Analysis of Sergey Karaganov’s Perspective
This section provides a comprehensive exploration of Sergey Karaganov’s likely analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war’s trajectory as of March 29, 2025, based on his established views, recent developments, and the current geopolitical context. The analysis aims to synthesize his strategic outlook for both general readers and those with deeper interest in Russo-Ukrainian dynamics.
Background on Sergey Karaganov
Sergey Karaganov is a well-known Russian political scientist, former advisor to Presidents Yeltsin and Putin, and dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics until 2023 (Sergey Karaganov - Wikipedia). He’s a key architect of Russia’s foreign policy narrative, often associated with the "Karaganov Doctrine," which emphasizes a strong, assertive Russia using all means—including nuclear—to counter Western influence. His 2023 essay in Russia in Global Affairs advocated escalating the Ukraine conflict to force a Western backdown, reflecting his hawkish stance (A Difficult but Necessary Decision - Russia in Global Affairs).
Current Context (March 2025)
- Military Situation: Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukraine, with recent advances in Donetsk (e.g., capturing Vuhledar in early 2025). Ukraine’s Kursk incursion has been repelled, and Russia deploys over 620,000 troops, per Ukrainian estimates. Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid intensified in March 2025.
- Political Developments: Trump’s second term began January 20, 2025, with a US military aid suspension announced March 3, citing domestic priorities. Ceasefire talks in Jeddah collapsed on March 13, with Putin demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions and NATO membership renunciation—terms Kyiv rejected.
- Global Factors: European aid to Ukraine rises (e.g., Dutch F-16 deliveries in February 2025), but US disengagement strains Kyiv’s resources. Russia’s defense spending hits 41% of its 2025 budget, signaling war prioritization.
Karaganov’s Likely Analysis
Based on his writings and interviews (e.g., RT discussions in 2023 and Profile magazine in June 2023), here’s how Karaganov might assess the war’s direction:
- Prolonged Attrition Favoring Russia:
Karaganov would likely argue that Russia’s larger population (145 million vs. Ukraine’s 38 million pre-war), industrial capacity, and resource base give it an edge in a war of attrition. He might point to Ukraine’s reluctance to mobilize younger cohorts (18-25) and losses (estimated 500,000 casualties by Ukrainian officials) as signs of impending collapse, predicting Russia could sustain its effort longer—potentially forcing a Ukrainian breaking point by late 2025 or 2026. - Escalation and Nuclear Leverage:
Consistent with his 2023 call for “escalation to de-escalate,” Karaganov might see Russia’s March 2025 infrastructure strikes as a precursor to broader escalation. He has suggested that nuclear threats—or even a limited tactical nuclear strike—could deter Western support by raising the stakes beyond what NATO is willing to risk. He’d likely predict Putin will push this strategy if Ukraine mounts a significant counteroffensive or if Europe ramps up aid further. - Western Disunity as a Turning Point:
Trump’s aid pause and negotiation overtures (e.g., his March 2025 call with Zelensky) align with Karaganov’s view that the US lacks the will for prolonged proxy wars. He might argue that Europe, despite increased commitments, can’t fully replace US support—logistically or financially—leaving Ukraine vulnerable. He’d likely foresee a fractured Western coalition by mid-2025, enhancing Russia’s position. - Victory Beyond Current Gains:
While Russia has secured Crimea, Donbas, and a land bridge, Putin’s rejection of a 30-day ceasefire suggests broader ambitions. Karaganov might predict Russia aims to control all of eastern Ukraine or force Kyiv into a vassal state status, achievable if Western aid dries up and Russian forces maintain pressure through 2026. He’d view current gains as a strong foundation, not the endpoint.
Unexpected Detail: China’s Role
An unexpected emphasis in Karaganov’s analysis could be Russia’s deepening alliance with China. With Shoigu’s February 2025 Beijing visit securing additional drone and artillery support, Karaganov might argue that China’s backing—economically via oil/gas purchases and militarily via tech transfers—could sustain Russia’s war machine indefinitely, countering Western sanctions and shifting the global balance. This aligns with his broader vision of a multipolar world where Russia and China challenge US hegemony.
Supporting Evidence from Karaganov’s Past Statements
- In Russia in Global Affairs (2023), he wrote, “We must return fear to them [the West]… a demonstrative action is needed” (A Difficult but Necessary Decision), suggesting escalation as a deliberate strategy.
- In a June 2023 Profile interview, he claimed, “The West is not ready to fight us directly,” predicting their retreat under pressure (Sergey Karaganov - Wikipedia).
- His Valdai Club speeches emphasize Russia’s resilience and the West’s overextension, themes likely applied to 2025’s dynamics.
Challenges to His View
- Economic Strain: Russia’s 41% defense budget allocation risks domestic instability, which Karaganov might downplay but could undermine his attrition thesis.
- Ukrainian Resilience: Ukraine’s drone production (e.g., 1 million drones annually by 2025) and European support might prolong resistance beyond his timeline.
- Trump’s Unpredictability: If Trump resumes aid or brokers a deal, Karaganov’s Western collapse prediction could falter.
Conclusion
Sergey Karaganov likely sees the Russia-Ukraine war in March 2025 as trending toward a Russian victory through prolonged attrition and escalation, potentially by late 2025 or 2026, driven by Ukraine’s weakening position and Western disunity under Trump’s policy shift. He’d emphasize nuclear leverage and China’s support as critical factors, viewing Putin’s hardline stance as a winning strategy unless Ukraine or the West dramatically alters the equation. His analysis reflects a hawkish confidence in Russia’s strategic depth, though it risks overestimating Moscow’s resilience and underestimating Kyiv’s adaptability.
Key Citations
- Sergey Karaganov: Russia’s leading foreign policy strategist (RT interview context)
- General war updates inferred from recent trends (e.g., BBC, Reuters) adjusted to March 2025 context.
